Agricultural Sector Under Threat
China remains the largest market for US agricultural exports, making the sector highly vulnerable in times of trade tensions. Analysts warn that new restrictions could severely impact key American exports, particularly:
- Soybeans, a major US export to China.
- Grain products, which have been a staple of bilateral trade.
- Meat, a sector that has seen increasing reliance on the Chinese market.
According to Genevieve Donnellon-May, a researcher at the Oxford Global Society, any increase in tariffs would have a major impact on US-China trade, further straining American farmers and exporters.
"The US agricultural sector has had time to prepare for a second Trump administration and Trade War 2.0, learning lessons from the first one. However, the reality may be far more complex," Donnellon-May stated.
Market Reaction and Price Surge
Following the Global Times report, Chinese soymeal and rapeseed meal futures surged 2.5%, reflecting concerns over potential supply disruptions. The Dalian Commodities Exchange soymeal contract reached its highest level since September 2024.
China imported $29.25 billion worth of US agricultural products in 2024, marking a 14% decline from the previous year, following a 20% drop in 2023. The steady decrease highlights China’s ongoing efforts to diversify its suppliers and reduce reliance on American imports.
Rising Diplomatic Tensions and Negotiation Prospects
The new US tariff plan escalates trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. While Beijing is exploring countermeasures, analysts suggest that China is still open to negotiations to prevent further economic fallout.
Wang Dong, Executive Director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University, warned that Trump's strategy could backfire:
"Trump and his advisors may think imposing tariffs now will pressure China into concessions. However, this move will have the opposite effect, as Beijing will inevitably retaliate strongly."
The previous US-China trade war (2018-2019) disrupted global markets and slowed economic growth. Analysts now warn that a new wave of tariffs could trigger even greater instability, affecting not only bilateral trade but also global supply chains.
Despite preparing countermeasures, the Chinese government has signaled a willingness to return to negotiations. However, if diplomacy fails, Beijing could impose tariffs on US coal, oil, and automobiles, alongside new trade restrictions on American tech companies.
An official announcement detailing China’s response measures is expected in the coming days.
Based on the materials www.thepigsite.com