On March 4, 2025, US President Donald Trump introduced new tariffs targeting major trade partners. These include a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports (except for a 10% tariff on Canadian energy) and a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, with discussions of an additional 10% increase. Moreover, starting in April, tariffs on goods from other countries will be set at levels equivalent to those imposed on US exports.
Trump has long championed tariffs as a tool to boost domestic production, generate additional revenue, and reduce trade deficits. However, the move has sparked strong opposition from major trading partners, raising concerns in the agricultural and pig farming industries worldwide.
Retaliatory Measures from Canada, Mexico, and China
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced 25% counter-tariffs on $155 billion worth of US goods, including nearly 400 agricultural products, such as pork, poultry, dairy, grains (wheat, barley, rice), fruits, vegetables, and processed foods.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum also announced retaliatory tariffs, with further details to be revealed on March 9.
China, in response, has already imposed 10–15% tariffs on US agricultural goods, escalating tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Impact on the Pork Industry
- Canada Faces Major Challenges
A 25% tariff on Canadian pigs exported to the US is expected to severely impact Canadian pig farmers. The province of Manitoba, where 40% of production (3 million pigs out of 8 million slaughtered annually) is exported to the US, is particularly vulnerable.
Rick Préjet, chair of Manitoba Pork, warned that the tariffs could significantly reduce earnings for Canadian producers. He also raised concerns that US buyers may turn away from Canadian pigs due to increased costs.
- US Meat Industry Concerned
Dan Halstrom, president of the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF), expressed disappointment over the lack of agreements that could have prevented these tariffs. He noted that in 2024, the US exported $8.4 billion worth of red meat, including $4 billion to Mexico.
- Consequences for US Farmers
Reagen Tibbs, a commercial agriculture educator at the University of Illinois, predicts that US farmers, already struggling financially, will suffer significant losses due to retaliatory tariffs.
"The 2018–2019 trade war affected the entire US agricultural sector, and a new trade war would likely have the same effect. A decline in US exports to China could allow Brazil and Argentina to step in and replace the US as a major global agricultural supplier," Tibbs explained.
What’s Next?
The US tariff hikes have already led to strong countermeasures from key trading partners. If negotiations fail, the situation could reshape the global pork market, potentially elevating new players like Brazil and Argentina.
Further trade discussions are expected in the coming weeks, which may determine the future of global agricultural trade.
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